Warmer winters, hotter summers and more frequent, longer droughts: That is some of what West Virginia could be in for if the Earth continues to warm, according to climate change analysts.

"The West Virginia that people are used to, that they grew up in, that their parents grew up in, it's not going to be the same place their children grow up in," said Katharine Hayhoe, an atmospheric scientist in the Department of Geosciences at Texas Tech University.

Hayhoe's mid-range climate projection of Great Lakes states suggests that West Virginia's summers may become more like those in Arkansas or Kansas by the end of the century. She coordinated the report for the Union of Concerned Scientists and based it on changes that she said already are under way in the Great Lakes states and elsewhere.

"We are seeing all kinds of signatures of change all over the country," she said. "For example, trees and flowers are blooming earlier in the year, and we're seeing new species growing where they didn't grow before because it was too cold."

Also, "animal and bird species are moving farther north," she said. "If we're seeing these things in the Great Lakes ... they've already come through West Virginia."

What can safely be extrapolated from the UCS's Great Lakes findings to West Virginia, she said, is temperature: 9 degrees Fahrenheit higher on average in the summer.

Winters could be warmer too, by some 7 or 8 degrees, by the end of the century.

And while shifts in rainfall and snowfall patterns predicted for Ohio and Pennsylvania may not apply here -- precipitation is a more local phenomenon than temperature, Hayhoe said, because of the effects of mountains and water bodies -- some implications about moisture follow from higher temperatures.

More rain and less snow in winter, for example. That could mean less groundwater recharge because rain is more likely than snow to run off, and that could affect summer stream levels.

Also in the summer, soils might be drier simply due to higher heat.

A Changed Environment

While warmer winters may sound appealing on a February day, warmer average temperatures year-round could mean real changes in wild, wonderful West Virginia, according to some who work in our natural environment.

Wildlife, for example, could be affected.

"Probably the biggest impact would be on our rivers and streams," said Curtis Taylor, chief of wildlife resources at the state Division of Natural Resources. "If flows get too low and water temperatures get too high, you could see declines in some species of aquatic life."

Cold water species would be the first ones impacted, he said.

Drought conditions could affect species such as rabbits that need grasses for cover, although Taylor believes terrestrial species would suffer less than aquatic species and amphibians that depend on wet or moist conditions.

He also suggested a flip side to warmer streams.

"Other species could come in -- threadfin shad is one; it's a big forage minnow-type species for game fish," he said. "If it got to the point where it warmed up and we could sustain threadfin shad populations, that would be a bonus for, say, largemouth bass."

Agriculture could be affected, too.

"West Virginia is a huge grassland state with cow-calf operations, and we have hillside pastures that dry out rather easily," said Steve Bonanno, West Virginia University extension agent in the Pleasants County extension office.

Under those conditions, farmers have to supplement with hay or grain, cutting into profits.

For other crops, "I would expect less soil moisture would significantly impact yields," Bonanno said.

What about the possible upside of a longer growing season?

"Some crops depend on growing degree-days, like corn, so the higher heat does have one advantage," he said. "But less soil moisture is more significant for our area."

Tourism could also see impacts, especially the state's ski areas and, less obviously, whitewater rafting.

In the northeast, Hayhoe said by way of example, snow is melting earlier in the year "so that later in the year you actually have extended low periods (in the rivers)."

New compositions of tree species, increased property damage where storms are more frequent and altered ranges and life cycles of insects that carry diseases are other climate-induced changes outlined in the UCS study.

Not Your Daddy's West Virginia

Hayhoe emphasized one finding in particular from the climate computer models -- one with possibly the strongest implications of all for West Virginia.

"Changes under a high (greenhouse gas) emissions scenario are about twice what we'd see under a low-emissions scenario," she said.

"Are we going to build more coal-fired power plants? In West Virginia, there's reason to want to do that, but it ... produces the most carbon dioxide of any way to generate electricity," she continued, joining many others who are calling for a shift away from coal.

"We need to change our track within the next 10 to 20 years, which means that we need to start now -- we can't afford to wait."