Story By Rob Cornelius
In the midst of all this impenetrable talk about the credit crisis, there's a far more interesting topic looming on the horizon. It might even hit home in West Virginia. While America faces a hefty and growing trade deficit every year, all of the money we spend may be coming back in a big way.
Sovereign wealth funds, monies run and controlled by state governments in resource-rich or resource-poor nations are about to pile back into the U.S. markets. And unlike the foreign purchases of iconic American assets like Rockefeller Center years ago, this time the purchases will help make these foreign countries all the stronger as they develop into first-world powers.
While you've seen the Saudis and Abu Dhabi just this week push further into owning troubled bank Citigroup (C), the more important buys will be when developing nations like China or India make long term plays to buy resource and raw material companies here. Imagine a scenario where the Chinese government buys a major oil or even a coal company. They can afford it.
The next few decades will be about what folks are calling resource nationalism ... the sort of issues that used to result in an occasional war. As much coal for steel as West Virginia sells to Asia, what's to keep a big foreign government from throwing down a paltry few billion dollars to snap up Consol (CNX) or the newly formed Patriot Coal (PCX). In the long term, even the most expensive to operate union mines in Appalachia will seem like a bargain to someone whose national energy need is great enough.
Understand that the biggest oil and energy companies on Earth aren't really Exxon (XOM) or Marathon (MRO), but state owned and run entities like Saudi Aramco, PetroChina (PTR) and Russia's Gazprom (OGZPF). They aren't necessarily as concerned about short-term profit as long-term economic development and nation-building of their own. America is more concerned about taxing big oil, while other governments are doing their best to acquire it and subsidize the costs for their own citizens.
Nothing should surprise us in the current climate, where Europe and Asia are paying more to ship thermal coal to their shores from Appalachia than for the coal itself.
It's already being done in small doses. The Chinese and Saudis have bought into western Canadian energy companies like Husky and would love to lock up a long term spot in the oil sands there. It was thought last week the Chinese might make a run at Rio Tinto (RTP), one of the largest iron and aluminum producers in the world and the second biggest miner of western coal in the U.S.
While oil prices are probably gapping down in the very short term, the longer term story holds. Ten years from now, all the big buyouts of the last couple years will probably seem cheap, whether in oil, natural gas or coal.
As for natural gas, it will be priced for perfection again someday. But the Canadians are trying their best to make that time sooner than later. Energy stocks there have been hammered this fall by new tax policies that will penalize drilling in the long term.
What does this mean? Less natural gas for the Canadians to sell south and higher prices for locals like Chesapeake (CHK). Eventually North America will work through this gas glut. One good winter would fix things ... but signs point to that being this year. The great thing about natural gas is that it's a local market. Without much real LNG infrastructure in place in this country, we can't ship out our surplus. Prices stay low because so much of the natural gas here is rather stranded.
None of it seems to matter to Chesapeake. They just keep drilling and proving more gas. Their third quarter report last month was fantastic, even with lower sales prices on the gas they pumped out. The most important thing Chesapeake is doing? Probably reserve replacement. Simply put, for every cubic foot of gas they sold this year, they found over four more. four hundred and fifty percent replacement.
The numbers might not sound important. But when the big oil companies domestically are having trouble even replacing 100 percent of what they sell in a given year, you realize why they should be spending more time with the drill bit and less time buying back stock.
Rob Cornelius watches energy, utilities and metals for The State Journal. He's worked as a reporter for WTAP-TV, Ohio University Public Broadcasting and the Parkersburg News. Reach him at robcwv@gmail.com.