Story By Rob Cornelius
If you can find a reason not to be invested in the coal sector, please page me now. Blow up my hip or whatever. Because outside of a straight ban on huge swaths of existing mining, there is nothing ready to stop this train.
Every day, another company announces another blowout quarter. This week it was Alpha Natural Resources, the Virginia-based concern that operates mines here and in surrounding states. It is one of the most levered to the price and demand for metallurgical coals, and it reported selling recent tonnage in the ballpark of $250. Prices in Asia have seen highs of $305 a ton or more in the most recent settlements.
The good news for all in the space is that the investment analysts are catching up to the view that met coal will stay above $200 at minimum in 2009 and possibly beyond.
All local miners are talking expansion and adding new workers. The conference calls have been most interesting, with Alpha officials essentially telling analysts that the labor situation is as tight as the recent 2005 peak. Everyone who can pass a drug test and wants to work is working.
That being the case, Alpha is offering stock bonuses to employees for retention, and Massey Energy is working up multi-year contracts with its employees.
What can get in the way? Well, we've talked about labor. Transportation issues can get in the way, though those problems with rail or barge usually lead to revenue deferred, not denied.
Diesel fuel costs are critical, though the current met coal pricing at $300 and Central Appalachian steam coal at spot prices more than $90 a ton are far outpacing the increases in fuel costs. The tire shortage that plagued miners in 2005 seems to have abated, and we may have reached a headline peak since Business Week just did a piece on the booming business in recapping heavy equipment tires. Just like Donald Trump opening a hotel in your resort locale, a major magazine piece on your niche story indicates a shark has been jumped.
Shipments out of the east are up by 80 percent for the first quarter of 2008, to 9.4 million tons from ports in Virginia. Add to that the coal that left the U.S. from the port controlled by CONSOL Energy near Baltimore, and you understand where demand is.
Event risk is still the greatest catastrophic issue for the coal sector. CONSOL has repetitively opened and closed its Buchanan Mine in Virginia because of maintenance issues in the past few years. Ditto for Walter Industries, whose stock has risen 50 percent in six weeks. It has the highest percentage of met coal produced in the country but does it from three very deep mines in Alabama.
For the time being, all is well. Most of the big miners have enough reserves already permitted to meet their demand and planned expansions.
The question is the future. What is the benefit of expediting mining? What will the coal be worth in a year or five? No matter how many new coal-fired power plants are permitted, there seems to be plenty of market overseas for export.
McClendon = Entertaining
I've been on vacation the past couple weeks and have yet to see the hard copy, but the write-up on Chesapeake Energy CEO Aubrey McClendon in the new Fortune is just awesome. Surf it at (http://money.cnn.com/2008/04/30/magazines/fortune/whitford_chesapeake.fortune/index.htm?source=yahoo_quote)
This is well worth your time. People with vision who take risks will be richly rewarded.
Rob Cornelius watches energy, metals and markets for The State Journal. He's worked as a reporter for WTAP-TV, Ohio University Public Broadcasting and the Parkersburg News. Reach him at robcwv@gmail.com.