If the county's "active coal" were reassessed as more modestly taxed "reserve coal," Gillespie pointed out, it would cost the school system at a minimum part of $330,000 in annual coal property tax funding that isn't backed up by the state.

That amount may seem small in a budget of $16 million.

But when it comes to school system spending decisions, $100,000 here or there can mean staff reductions, he said, or deferred textbook replacements -- cutbacks that directly affect students.

Daily news stories about coming environmental regulations, depletion of economical coal seams and new interest in natural gas for electricity seem to foreshadow a future where less West Virginia coal is burned.

Clay County's Fola mines, it turns out, will continue operating for now. But that school system's near miss points to other county school systems that rely more heavily still on coal.

Most at risk are Boone and Logan counties, with Mingo and Wyoming close behind, according to an analysis by The State Journal.

Coal, Excess Levies Go Together

School system revenues come from three general sources -- local, state and federal -- with the amounts and shares varying based on a broad range of school system characteristics.

Relevant here are two aspects of local funding: regular property taxes and school excess levies on property.

Of the regular property taxes that go to a county's school system, 90 percent essentially is guaranteed by the state as part of the state school aid funding formula, as explained by West Virginia Department of Education Director of School Finance Joe Panetta.

But 10 percent of that is at risk, Panetta said, along with the school excess levy in counties that have them.

The counties with the most to lose in a declining coal market, according to Department of Revenue Deputy Secretary Mark Muchow, are those where a high share of property taxes is borne by coal and where, at the same time, the school system relies on the maximum excess levy of 91.8 cents per $100 valuation on Class III and IV properties.

As it happens, those conditions tend to coincide.

"If you have a power plant or coal property, chances are people will vote excess levies in," Muchow said. "The counties that have significant mineral properties ... have typically maximized their utilization of taxes on resources."

That is the situation in Boone, Logan, Mingo and Wyoming counties.

Both Boone and Logan billed more than 39 percent of property taxes to coal properties in 2009-10.

And all four have the maximum school levy.

While coal property tax funding that is not backed up by the state makes up just 1.7 percent of Clay County Schools' budget, it comprises 5.8 percent and more of the total budgets in these four counties -- fully 18 percent in Boone.

For these counties, changes in coal markets could significantly affect public education.

Fewer mines -- because of reduced demand due to recession, for example, or to utility fuel switching or to difficulty in permitting new mines -- means less coal valued at the higher active coal rate and lower property tax collections.

Lower coal prices, again the result of reduced demand, means lower property valuations and lower tax collections.

Public education in these four school systems is vulnerable to such market changes.

Example: Boone County

If coal property tax collections in Boone County were to decline by just one-quarter, the school system could lose more than $2 million, or 4.5 percent of its budget.

"Any time there's a projected decline in the funds that we may receive, this causes us a concern," said Boone County Schools Superintendent John Hudson, who was named to his current position in July 2009.

"We haven't had formal planning meetings regarding a possible loss of funding from coal, but there have been (informal) discussions regarding the impact of the funding on current staffing patterns, as well as on services to our students," Hudson said.

When asked what type of implications a loss of $2 million would have on the district, he said, "We would be strapped."

"We would have to look specifically at current spending patterns. How we are staffing our specific situations, how we fund maintenance, the upgrades to our school buildings, athletics, any extras -- and we go above and beyond the call of duty here in Boone County Schools," he added.

Less Predictable Unraveling

Loss of coal property tax funding is one direct and predictable squeeze that these four counties' school systems will feel with any local reduction in coal mining.

But if and as coal declines, the unraveling of the strands it has woven through heavily coal-dependent communities also will be varied and unpredictable.

Gillespie in Clay County hinted at a couple of aspects of that when the Fola closure was announced.

If the mines were closed, he suggested, voters would be unlikely to reauthorize the excess levy when it comes up in a year and a half -- leading to a loss of about $700,000, a further 3.5 percent of the system's budget.

In addition, closure of the mine would lead to the out-migration of families from the county, reducing the number of students in the schools and, therefore, school funding from the state.

Hudson, in Boone County, echoed that thought.

"Would a loss of coal impact our population? More than likely," he said "Any loss of enrollment would impact the money that we get from the state aid formula -- and that's how you define your staffing patterns, etc."

The WVDE's Panetta pointed out a larger issue: Any loss in general revenues to the state through reduced economic activity cuts state school aid formula to all counties.

"The concern at the state level is, if this cap and trade and some of these other federal regulations that they're considering really hurt the value of coal in the state and we're producing less, you'll lose the severance tax, you'll lose the sales tax, you'll lose income taxes," Panetta said.

His comment hints at the unraveling of economists' "multiplier" effect -- the concept behind the West Virginia Coal Association's assertion that "Every coal mining job generates between five and eight other jobs in the local economy."

Gov. Joe Manchin's proposed fiscal 2010-11 budget reduces public education spending by 4 percent.

School districts may have to lay off teachers, Panetta said.

"Four percent, 5 percent doesn't seem like a huge cut," he said. "But 80 to 85 percent of total revenues in school systems are tied up in salaries. Staff reductions can affect teachers in classrooms -- teachers that offer extracurricular activities, advanced math, advanced science, teachers that provide higher level courses or tutoring to kids."