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A Real Change Election Looms in 2012

Every decade since the 1950s, West Virginia voters have pushed the House of Delegates, in at least one election cycle, towards the Republican Party.

The House of Delegates is comprised of 100 members and the Democrat Party has enjoyed large majorities throughout recent history. But during moments of voter dissatisfaction, voters have a history and practice of voting for Republicans in the House of Delegates.

A review of historical election returns shows the Republican Party gains — which are tremendous at times — follow the national mood or trends. For example, during the Jimmy Carter mid-term election of 1978 Republicans gained 17 seats. And in 1984, the year of Ronald Reagan's re-election, State House Republicans gained 14 seats.

Neither of these are the largest gains. In 1966, which was Democrat Party President Lyndon Johnson's mid-term election, West Virginia Republicans gained a whopping 26 seats in the House of Delegates. And in the presidential election of 1956, state Republicans gained 18 new seats.

More recently, the ranks of the House Republicans have shown more modest gains but have managed to hold those gains and even build upon them. For example, in 1994 with Congress at dismal approval ratings, West Virginia House Republicans gained 10 seats. Since 2000, gains have occurred in 2002, 2004, 2008 and 2010. Currently, West Virginia voters have tapped 35 Republicans to serve in the House of Delegates, the largest total since the early 1970s.

Is it too much to expect the same to continue next year considering every decade shows at least one election cycle where voters search for change by way of their House of Delegates member election?

The average "one election cycle" gain since the 1950s is 15 seats to the Republicans during that once-a-decade change election. Here's the math: six in 2002, 10 in 1994, 14 in 1984, 17 in 1978, 26 in 1966 and 18 in 1956. That equals an average of 15.

No one can deny the election cycle of 2012 in West Virginia will be extraordinary. Voters will rush to the polls to express their obvious displeasure with Washington, D.C, Congress, the Obama administration, run-away government spending, debt crisis, a poor economy, lack of jobs, Obamacare and our state's inability to provide needed reforms.

If a shift in the partisan makeup of the House of Delegates moves only the average amount for a change election — 15 — the tally will be 50 Republicans and 50 Democrats.

Let's take a look at these numbers:

• Currently there are 35 Republicans elected to the state House of Delegates. Eight additional districts have elected a Republican in the recent past. Another 10 districts are multi-member district seats which currently elect at least one Republican. Three other districts are new open seats due to growth in the Eastern Panhandle and Monongalia County.
• In the three most recent presidential elections, West Virginians voted primarily for the Republican candidate — George W. Bush in 2000 and 2004 and John McCain in 2008. And in those elections, Republicans have lost no House seats to Democrats.
• By my count, 50 delegate districts are included in the counties won by Republican Bill Maloney in the recent special election for governor. And in 15 additional districts Republican Bill Maloney garnered at least 47 percent of the vote.
• Approximately 40 seats are solid Democrat and 35 currently elect Republicans. The difference is the 25 other seats. For the Republicans to win the majority in the House, they would need to win 70 percent of those 25 seats. While that is very unlikely, it certainly is possible.
• Numerous recent polls consistently show some 75 percent of Mountain State voters self-identify themselves as moderate-to-very conservative. The House Republican Caucus demonstrates a solid record of fighting for those conservative values, such as by fighting Obamacare, protecting the definition of marriage, eliminating the sales tax on food, extending the Homestead Exemption, working for open and transparent government, and pushing for job growth and protecting property rights. The House Republican Caucus is the voice of 75 percent of all West Virginia voters.

Just how extraordinary the election of 2012 will be is debatable. But the voter frustration and outright disgust is undeniable. In just 12 months, the elected Republican delegates may caucus in the House of Delegates chamber to elect the next Speaker.

A fair review of the historical election returns suggests the House is "in-play." A real change election looms in 2012.

Daryl Cowles is a Republican member of the House of Delegates from Morgan County. He serves as an assistant minority whip and assistant caucus chairman for the House Republican Caucus. He also is a member of the State Republican Executive Committee representing the 15th Senatorial District.